Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.063854 0.072035 0.080491 0.089856 0.099908 0.110347 0.121980
2025-02-23 0.052647 0.065056 0.078611 0.094383 0.112100 0.131261 0.153430
2025-03-02 0.044533 0.059720 0.077129 0.098233 0.122807 0.150223 0.182825
2025-03-09 0.035566 0.051856 0.071447 0.096140 0.125853 0.159922 0.201405
2025-03-16 0.028278 0.044880 0.065811 0.093181 0.127115 0.166975 0.216505
2025-03-23 0.025166 0.042754 0.065762 0.096691 0.135883 0.182717 0.241747
2025-03-30 0.022141 0.040286 0.064904 0.098880 0.142817 0.196151 0.264237
2025-04-06 0.020017 0.038783 0.065085 0.102225 0.151088 0.211182 0.288706
2025-04-13 0.017162 0.035800 0.062921 0.102206 0.154872 0.220559 0.306247
2025-04-20 0.016609 0.036296 0.065613 0.108737 0.167191 0.240698 0.337202
2025-04-27 0.013961 0.033056 0.062621 0.107220 0.168767 0.247176 0.351162
2025-05-04 0.012552 0.031704 0.062280 0.109299 0.175060 0.259649 0.372662
2025-05-11 0.010517 0.029066 0.059937 0.108630 0.177922 0.268152 0.389833
2025-05-18 0.009964 0.029130 0.061848 0.114235 0.189539 0.288294 0.422182
2025-05-25 0.009248 0.028774 0.063034 0.118774 0.199750 0.306724 0.452553
2025-06-01 0.007454 0.025890 0.059802 0.116466 0.200224 0.312193 0.466183
2025-06-08 0.005792 0.022893 0.056070 0.113131 0.199038 0.315309 0.476677
2025-06-15 0.005345 0.022618 0.057050 0.117123 0.208374 0.332615 0.505793
2025-06-22 0.004756 0.021870 0.057105 0.119608 0.215527 0.347010 0.531181
2025-06-29 0.004376 0.021588 0.057977 0.123396 0.224610 0.364095 0.560227
2025-07-06 0.003643 0.020155 0.056561 0.123375 0.228035 0.373433 0.579062
2025-07-13 0.003692 0.021017 0.059599 0.130754 0.242537 0.398123 0.618453
2025-07-20 0.002928 0.019194 0.057238 0.129042 0.243390 0.403938 0.632707